The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Opportunities and Risks for Zimbabwe

In Zimbabwean government circles and political parties’ programmes/manifestos there is very little attention if any that is placed on the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) and the opportunities and risks it presents to this country.

The 4th Industrial Revolution is characterized by the fusion of the digital, biological and physical worlds as well as the growing utilization of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, robotics, 3D printing, The Internet of Things and advanced wireless technologies among others. In fact, the Africa Development Bank has stated clearly that the 4IR has ushered in a new era of economic disruption with uncertain consequences for the African continent. These key features of the 4IR have obvious and important implications on education, employment, and the future of work. This is especially true for African countries. Over the past decade, the share of the continent’s under-20 population has expanded by more than 25%, and is projected to be the continent’s largest age cohort by 2070. As Africa meets the 4IR, its youth will be one of its most important assets. This is why it is important that we in Zimbabwe have a serious conversation around the 4IR and how it can help transform our socio-economic fortunes and aspirations.

To be able to capture this demographic dividend, African countries must overhaul their education systems to prepare for the coming technological revolution. While automation could increase skills premiums and exacerbate income inequality, it could also increase productivity and create new occupations. As such, the 4IR represents a unique opportunity for African countries to leapfrog over development hurdles with the help of technology.

The Growth in Mobile Accounts

Africa had nearly half of global mobile accounts in 2018 and will see the fastest growth in mobile money through 2025. However, our continent still lags behind both developed and other developing countries in several indicators essential for the 4IR especially in infrastructure, technology access and education. Information flow remains a key ingredient for economic growth and job creation.

Statistics show that in Africa mobile technologies and services have generated 1.7 million direct jobs (both formal and informal), contributed to USD144 billion of economic value (8.5% of the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa), and contributed USD15 billion to the public sector through taxation as reported by the Africa Development Bank 2020).

It is also vital that we look at the financial figures and mobile operators in Zimbabwe. POTRAZ‘s sector performance statement for the third quarter of 2020 gave a peek into the financial results for Zimbabwe’s Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), Internet Access Providers (IAP) and Postal and Courier operators. The standout figures in the report were for MNO revenue. Zimbabwe’s mobile operators (Econet, NetOne and Telecel) revenue increased by 194.7% in the third quarter of 2020. In the second quarter, MNOs registered ZWL$3billion but that figure was eclipsed by the ZWL$8 billion they raked in for Q3. The marked increase in revenue was coupled with an increase in operating costs. According to POTRAZ’s statement, MNOs’ operating costs increased by 23.6% from the ZWL$2.1 billion that was recorded in Q2 to ZWL$2.5 billion. However, POTRAZ’s didn’t include exchange rate losses in the statement they published.

Other sector financials from the POTRAZ 2020 report show that Internet Access Providers (IAPs) saw a 148.6% increase in revenue recording ZWL$2.85 billion from the ZWL$1.15 billion recorded in Q2. IAPs suffered the most in operating costs recording ZWL$1.9 billion in Q3 from the ZWL$918 million in the second quarter. This is a growing sector that can hugely contribute to Zimbabwe’s 4IR policy. Comrades, Artificial Intelligence (AI), The internet of Things (IOT), and blockchain technology can enhance opportunities for data gathering and analysis for more targeted and effective poverty reduction strategies. By 2030, Africa’s potential workforce will be among the world’s largest it is therefore of importance for African governments to deliberately invest in the necessary technology and infrastructure for the 4IR.

In our country Zimbabwe, The Postal and Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of Zimbabwe (POTRAZ), released a statement outlining the Telecoms sector’s performance in Q3 2020. One of the areas covered by the report was Zimbabwe’s internet penetration rate. According to POTRAZ active internet and data subscriptions for the third quarter were 8 726 904 in Q3 2020. This is a 5.6% increase from the 8 267 268 recorded in the second quarter. As a result, Zimbabwe’s internet penetration rate grew by 3.2% to reach 59.9% in the third quarter from the 56.7% recorded in Q2.

On the other hand, active mobile subscriptions marginally declined by 0.1% to reach 12 783 785 from the 12 798 298 registered in the second quarter. This 0.1% decline resulted in mobile penetration rate falling to 87.7% in the period under review. Another important statistic released by POTRAZ in the report was the massive uptick in mobile internet and data traffic in the third quarter. In the second quarter, POTRAZ recorded 10 407 TB of data traffic in the country, but Q3 2020 saw a 43% increase in data traffic to 14 878TB. International bandwidth capacity usage also shot up by 16.8% to record 149 665 Mbps from the 128 173 Mbps that was recorded in Q2 of 2020.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution has equipped society with highly potent tools and we must harness their capabilities, where possible, to win this fight. However, they cannot replace sound leadership. Leadership has emerged as a vital tool in states that have naïve technological infrastructures in healthcare and are forced to follow the eminent guiding words of Theodore Roosevelt in “doing what they can, with what they have”

Yes, Zimbabwe in particular and Africa in general still have a massive task ahead to catch up with countries like China, Taiwan and South Korea regarding the use of Big Data, The internet of Things and the 4th Industrial Revolution. However, technological and skills transfer are some of the things that our African governments should negotiate for when they engage with these countries when signing investment and bilateral deals. This requires a different approach to leadership on the part of all African leaders in business, government and civil society.